NBA betting: 76ers vs. Knicks Game 5 prediction, odds, pick for Tuesday 4/30

76ers vs. Knicks Odds

Tuesday, April 30, 7 p.m. ET, TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Philadelphia 76ers

There is a direct correlation between who wins the rebounding battle and which team wins each game in this series.

The leader in boards is 4-0, and the 76ers can't beat the Knicks on the glass. The bounces haven't gone their way to some degree, but the real determination of this series has been that the Knicks are just tougher, they out-hustle the 76ers consistently, and their role players outplay the 76ers' routinely.

The home team has been favored every game by 4-6 points, and each team has covered twice. The Knicks covered as home favorites in Game 1 and as road underdogs in Game 4, and the 76ers only have covered as road dogs in Game 2 and as home favorites in Game 3. The 125-114 Game 3 final score is by far the highest total of the series, and Philly's 125 points are the largest scoring output from either team by a considerable measure.

In fact, the Knicks' 114 points in their Game 3 loss were the most points they've scored in the NBA Playoffs so far.

The over/under has been split so far this series as the over hit in Games 1 and 3, and the under hit in Games 2 and 4.

New York Knicks

The Knicks are 3.5-point favorites as of this writing. As mentioned, they're 2-0 at home this series, 1-1 against the spread — 1-1 to the over/under as well.

Guess who is 26-6 as a home favorite this season straight up? That would be the Knicks, who are tied for fourth in the league as a home favorite. However, they were only 18-14 ATS as a home favorite in those games, but it also means they win close games at MSG.

On the player-prop front, Jalen Brunson has gone over his points, points + assists (PA) and points + rebounds + assists (PRA) props in each of his last two games, but he went under on points in the first two, as he did on PRA and other combos.

The Knicks have managed to hold Embiid to unders twice in points and PRA this series. Embiid has also not hit a rebounding over yet in this series.

76ers vs. Knicks

Betting Pick & Prediction

There's a world where this matchup is like Game 4, and the Knicks fight their way to a finish behind Brunson in a tight (and likely under) game. There's an Embiid/Tyrese Maxey desperation game where they carry Philly to an upset win. There's also a possibility that the Knicks dominatethe 76ers in a blowout because Philly never recovers from an early onslaught.

I think we're back in the classic Eastern Conference Playoffs mud. The Knicks and 76ers have only breezed over the total once, and the other was a close call until a late rally. We're at the point where there are little to any surprises left, so I think it's another rock fight.

The total opened at 201.5 and has been bet up to 204.5, and according to Action Pro, 96 percent of bets are on the over, but early sharp money is going under.

I'll lean under for the game and under for the first half. I'll likely add a player prop from this game in our best bets file as well.

Pick: Under 204.5 (Bet to 203.5) | 1H Under 105.5 (Bet to 103.5)